Sensex - Past, Present & Future

Below mentioned has been a Whatsapp forward. Found it interesting. Hence publishing. Disclaimer: Data not verified by PR or Easy Investments.

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 1. BSE completed 43 years.

2. There were around 11,000 trading days in last 43 years.

3. Observations on regular basis and positive and negative returns occurrences.

Frequency          Positive      Negative 

Daily                 53% time    47% time

Weekly             56% time    44% time

Monthly           61% time     39% time 

Quarterly         64% time    36% time 

Yearly              72% time     28% time 

3 years            89% time     11% time 

5 years            96% time     4% time 

10 years         100% time 

4. Bse Sensex delivered 15.5% CAGR returns over last 43 years. 

5. Decadal returns dispersion 

Period                      CAGR

1980-1990                21.6%

1990-2000               14.3%

2000-2010                17.8%

2010-2020                 8.8%.*              

2020...to 21Dec,2022..........….24.8%

6. BSE Sensex returns 15.5%. Add 1.4% average dividend yield of 1.4% of last 43 years. At 16.9% compounding the value of BSE is actually around 80,000 level.

7. Longest period without returns was from 1994 till 2003. 9 years in total.

8. Since 2002 in last 18 years NO single 7 years rolling returns were without returns. This means since 2002 if you ever invested and kept money for minimum period of 7 years then you would have never lost money.

9. But what is most surprising and rewarding has been the performance of actively managed equity funds. Here are the data:

Category           20 years      

                             CAGR    

Hybrid                 15.17%        15.96%

Hybrid - ex        16.37%       16.74%

Diversified           18.11%        16.25%

Diversified-ex    19.89%      18.10%

ELSS                    18.45%       18.20%

ELSS-ex             19.66%      21.47%*

*All Funds             17.52%       16.41%

All Funds-ex      18.73%      18%*

* excluding LIC/JM/Taurus/Quant MF schemes. This mean schemes of HDFC/ Nippon (earlier Reliance)/ Birla/ ICICI Pru/ SBI/ Principal/ Canara Rebecco/ Franklin etc.)

10. BSE Sensex was at 3800 in June 1996 (26years back). In last 26 years average-ex MF delivered 18% CAGR. Had BSE Sensex delivered as much as average MF schemes then the value of BSE Sensex should have been:*

At 16.4% CAGR, BSE Sensex should be around 1,70,000 levels

At 18% CAGR, BSE Sensex should be around 2,38,000 levels.