"Hopefully in the next year we will have better liquidity and lower interest rates and that should be supportive for IIP numbers," Shah said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
However, at the same time, he feels that the market is likely to to be highly volatile next year and hence averaging is important. Shah also adds that it is time to build on to fixed income assets.
Here is an edited transcript of his interview.
Q: Are you generally feeling more bullish going into the next year given the macro context?
A: I think we probably can remain bullish for the next year even though the current assessment is not so positive. The IIP numbers are reflecting the sad state of affairs in the current economy. Probably things are bottoming out. Since almost May 2010 we had very tight liquidity. However, hopefully in the next year we will have better liquidity and lower interest rates and that should be supportive for IIP numbers.
Second we had a delayed monsoon. So, the impact of that monsoon will be reflected in the coming months in terms of better rabi crops. While there are reasons to be worried because of the IIP numbers which have just around been negative or marginally positive for last couple of months.
Export growth which in spite of currency depreciating by so much is still turning out to be muted. All these things are worrisome signs in the near term, but hopefully with the process which government has initiated on the reforms side and if actions are taken on the ground we will see better days ahead. Thats what market is pricing in today.
Q: Let me ask you asset allocation question. Since you straddle both the fixed income and the equity markets, next year between this Diwali and next Diwali, say the RBI reduces interest rates by 100 basis points. Do you think equities still have a good chance of outperforming, the kind of returns that bond funds will deliver assuming that there will be some capital gains because of those interest rate cuts?
A: I think we will have volatility in the next year like we had in the last year. Probably three or four months in the next year will give positive return like last year while 8 or 9 months will give marginally negative to zero return next year like last year. So, it will all depend upon how you try to average yourself into the market and while it is very fair for us to say that three or four months will give positive return but no one really knows which three or four months will deliver that return. You will have to average yourself in.
You may start today and Murphy's law will come into play and the market will go down tomorrow. You will have to average yourself in and especially if market gives an opportunity of going down because of something happening on the international side then thats a god sent opportunity for you to average. Assuming that you will not be afraid of volatility and you will be averaging yourself at various levels in the market then probably equities have a far better chance of outperforming fixed income side.
However on the fixed income side its time to build duration. Now the debate has shifted from "if and when the rates will be cut" to "when will the rates be cut?" clearly there will be rate cut movement either in this coming credit policy or after that or after that. Hence building up duration on the fixed income side will be advisable and on equities averaging yourself especially during downturn caused by international events will provide far better returns in the next year.
Q: On Diwali day we expect a little more detail from fund managers than they usually give us. So, if one of your relatives from Gujarat called you and said Nilesh bhai, I have some money where should I invest, banking fund or infra fund? what would you say to them?
A: I will recommend him to do the SIP and I will recommend him to SIP in private sector banks and infrastructure funds. I still think private sector banks will continue to outperform public sector banks partly because their business model seems to be far superior considering the current economic environment. So, my recommendation will be to buy private sector banks and infrastructure funds.
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