Investing in SIP's through market cycles...

"Think big, think fast, think ahead. Ideas are no one's monopoly." ~ Dhirubai Ambani

We can replace 'Ideas' with 'Knowledge'. And more and more investment managers come in... they debug complex concepts in simpler fashion. And most of them explain those there were not done earlier. In this knowledge economy - that is the BIGGEST Benefit. You can gain out of others wisdom. And the new entrants in to the industry - try to impress the investing public more than the older ones for obvious reasons.

The new kid on the mutual fund industry is https://capitalmindmf.com/. And I enjoy reading their newsletter by email. In their recent newsletter dated 1st May 2026, I was stunned with their write up on - "You want the bad years now - not later."

It was so impressive - thought of summing up the same for everyone's benefit.

In this article they discuss about the impact of investing in two schemes which has delivered end to end - same CAGR - 14% - over 10 years. The only difference is - in 1st scheme - 1st 5 years the NAV has risen steadily and flattered. In the 2nd scheme - it the the other way around - 1st 5 years has been bad and next 5 years has been good.

Now the scenario testing:

1) For a One time investor - the end result in both funds would be the same : 14%

2) But for SIP - the results are different. For SIP - B, when the 1st 5 years were bad - and NAV's were obviously low - each SIP investment would have accumulated more units. 

3) As a result - SIP started during BAD years gave better returns than those started during Good years.

But in reality - many investors worry / hold back investing during bad years. And worse - some of them stop their SIP's saying that the returns are not great only to restart when green shoots show up.

So the writing is clear on the wall - continue your SIP's in GOOD FUNDS irrespective of market conditions. Over a 10 year period - you never know when good or bad years come up. Infact, they alternate. As seen in either of scenario above - you make returns in both scenarios. But you can be lucky if you start your investments during tough times and tough times last for sometime - you hit a JACKPOT.

Ripple effect of Oil Crisis:

In life, we take many things for granted. For instance – water resource. We make a borewell and keep consuming it and sometimes wasting it. Only when the supply gets disrupted, we understand its value. We scramble to get things done – like ‘buying’ water at a cost.

Right now, the ongoing Oil Crisis is one such disruption. When unprecedent things happen, when things go out of control, and when things may take years to normalize – we understand our limitations. That exposes the fragility of economy.

While most of us may be aware of the way the US-Iran war unfolded, following is a simple flow of events to understand the ripple effect:

·       28^th Feb 2026 : US-Israel launch: Operation EPIC FURY, killing Iran’s supreme leader  Ali Khamenei, many of his family members and senior officials of the regime.

·       Iran's response was calculated. Rather than engage in a conventional war it could not win, Tehran weaponised geography. It deployed drones, missiles, and naval mines to seal the Strait of Hormuz, and then it began hitting energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

·       Within the first week, Iran’s drones struck Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility- responsible for nearly 20 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas exports. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery, the kingdom's largest, was closed after a fire caused by intercepted drone debris. The UAE's ADNOC shut refineries. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and Bahrain's Bapco followed. Gulf countries have been forced to cut at least 10 million barrels per day of production.

·       On 18^th March, Israel hit Iran's South Pars gas field - the single largest natural gas deposit on earth, shared between Iran and Qatar. Iran retaliated within hours, launching missiles at Qatar's Ras Laffan again, causing what QatarEnergy described as extensive damage. Iran also targeted UAE’s Habshan gas complex, the Bab oilfield, LNG facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi.

·       In total, six countries in the Gulf have now had their energy infrastructure directly attacked or shut down: Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

·       Strait of Hormuz: Before 28^th Feb, 100 oil tankers crossed every day. In past 3 weeks a total of 21 tankers have managed to cross.

Global impact:

·       World consumes about 105 million barrels per day.
·       As a result of war, Oil supply has fallen by 8 million barrels per day. That 7.5%.
·       So far, Asian LNG spot prices more than doubled to over 25 dollars per million BTU. European natural gas futures rose over 50 percent. Jet fuel prices are up 83 percent, according to the International Air Transport Association. Urea fertiliser prices have risen 35 percent. Helium, essential for semiconductor manufacturing, has doubled in price since Qatar, the source of a third of the world's helium supply, shut production.
·       More than 30 countries are affected. South Korea imposed fuel caps for the first time in nearly three decades. Japan began releasing oil from its national reserves. Bangladesh stationed troops at oil depots and closed universities to conserve fuel. The Philippines moved government offices to a four-day work week. Nepal started rationing cooking gas. Vietnam has less than 20 days of oil reserves remaining. Thailand's tourist arrivals fell 9 percent in the first week of March alone, with hotels reporting occupancy as low as 10 percent. Smaller energy importing economies, including the Philippines, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, would face the sharpest macroeconomic damage, as inflation, currency depreciation, and widening deficits hit all at once.

Impact on India:

·       India imports 90% of its Crude oil.
·       50% of this and 75% of LNG pass through strait of Hormuz.
·        22 Indian flagged vessels carrying 2.2 million metric tonnes of critical energy cargo, including LPG, LNG, and crude oil, were stranded in the strait as of 18 March. Only two vessels each carrying 46,000 metric tonnes of LNG managed to reach India - that too in exchange of emergency medicines etc.
·       With rising crude price, our current account deficit spirals up. A US$1 rise in crude oil prices increases India’s annual import bill by approximately US$1.5 billion to US$2 billion (approx. ₹12,000–₹16,000 crore). This boosts the Current Account Deficit (CAD), fuels inflation, weakens the Rupee, and negatively impacts downstream oil marketing companies.
·       Agricultural exports to Gulf countries, including rice and bananas, have been severely disrupted.
·       Around 93 lakh Indians work in the Middle East, and 30 percent of India's total remittances (over 50 billion dollars annually) flows from the region.

What Next ? :

With majority of IRAN’s top brass wiped out, many expect the war to come to an end soon. But life will not be the same again.
·       There could be sporadic instances of terror threats / attacks across the globe – increasing the cost of defense and security checks. This could affect normalcy.
·       Oil and LNG production may not resume immediately. It depends on field's age and the nature of the shutdown. LNG facilities involve sub-zero cryogenic equipment that must be restarted gradually to avoid thermal shock and damage.
In 1973, the Arab oil embargo was a political tool that could be lifted with a political decision. In 2026, even after a ceasefire, the physical, financial, and logistical wreckage will take far longer to clear.

What the US thought could be a cake walk like the way they handled Venezuelan crisis could turn out to be a costly affair – affecting not just them, but the entire world. They would not have imagined the kind of retaliation from Iran. They would not have imagined that their key NATO allies not aligning with them. And worse what should have been a Israel-Iran war has turned out to be a Arab-Iran war. As Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said on 19 March: the trust that held the Gulf's energy system together has been completely shattered. The ripple effect could take longer than you imagine to normalize. And what was taken for granted - be it oil or peace - has become a luxury now.

Things to do when Market falls:

Investors like to invest when there is visibility and clarity. They invest more when the returns have been good. But the 'good' returns they see are out of the investments made when markets have been bad. 

• And investors like to invest when they have money. But such opportunity (market fall) happens occassionally. When you are flushed with money - keep it aside and invest when such opportunity strikes. 
• Having said that - it is not that easy to invest when market falls. Often we wait for clarity to emerge... and miss the opportunity. Hence invest gradually when market keeps falling. And it is an art to stretch your capital and invest to the maximum possible downcycle. If you have exhausted the reserved funds - do search for some more, squeeze out and invest.
• More important - do not look for consensus to invest. The person next to you may scare you. Close your ears and keep investing. 
• Some investors review their existing portfolio during market fall and feel disheartened to see the pathetic returns. Donot do that. When broader market falls - everything will fall. Your portfolio alone may not be insulated. You an earmark those you would like to knock off - but do that when markets have recovered.
• Spreading your investments across industries, across assets can help you reduce volatility and improve consistency. Experts say, the ideal ratio could be 70% Equity, 15% Debt and 15% Gold. 
• Investors normally like to invest only in assets which give THE BEST returns. So they switch / skew their portfolio - only to get hit when market reverses. Better to maintain a balance.

The message is simple - if you want good returns in equity - you need to take that bit of risk. No shortcuts there. Current IRAN War or rather the last 18 months market consolidation is one such opportunity. GRAB IT. Get it touch for assistance.

Writer Sujatha ... on Economics:

 பொருளாதாரம் :- 

சுஜாதா குமுதத்தில்  எழுதி அதிகமாகப் பிரபலமாகாத ஒரு கட்டுரை: 

பணம் !

பணம் என்பது எனக்கு வெவ்வேறு பிராயத்தில் வெவ் வேறு அர்த்தங்கள் கொண்டிருந்தது. பள்ளியில் படிக்கும்போது மத்தியானம் சாப்பிட வீடு திரும்பிவிடுவதால், பாட்டி கண்ணில் காசைக் காட்டமாட்டாள். 

எப்போதாவது இரண்டணா கொடுத்து ‘பப்பரமுட்டு’ வாங்கிச் சாப்பிடு’ என்று தருவாள். இரண்டணா ஒரு இரண்டுங்கெட்டான் நாணயம். ரங்கராஜா கொட்டகையில் சினிமா தரை டிக்கெட் வாங்கலாம். ப்ரச்சனை, வெளியே வரும்போது சட்டையெல்லாம் பீடி நாற்றம் அடிக்கும். பாட்டி கண்டு பிடித்துவிடுவாள். 

பாட்டிக்கு ஜனோ பகார நிதி என்று ஒரு வங்கியில் கொஞ்சம் குத்தகைப் பணம் இருந்தது. அதிலிருந்து எப்போதாவது எடுத்து வரச் சொல்வாள். 25 ரூபாய். நடுங்கும் விரல்களில் இருபத்தைந்து தடவை யாவது எண்ணித்தான் தருவார்கள். பாங்கையே கொள்ளையடிக்க வந்தவனைப்போல என்னைப் பார்ப்பார்கள்.

திருச்சி செயிண்ட் ஜோசப் காலேஜில் படித்தபோது, ஸ்ரீரங்கத்தி லிருந்து திருச்சி டவுனுக்கு மூணு மாசத்துக்கு மஞ்சள் பாஸ் ஒன்று வாங்கித் தந்துவிடுவாள். லால்குடி பாசஞ்சரில் பயணம் செய்து கல்லூரிக்குப் போவேன். மத்யானம் ஓட்டலில் சாப்பிட இரண்டணா கொடுப்பாள். பெனின்சுலர் ஓட்டலில் ஒரு தோசை இரண்டணா. சில நாள் தோசையத் துறந்து விட்டு இந்தியா காப்பி ஹவுசில் ஒரு காப்பி சாப்பிடுவேன். ஐஸ்க்ரீம் எல்லாம் கனவில்தான்.

எம்.ஐ.டி படிக்கும் போது அப்பா ஆஸ்டல் மெஸ் பில் கட்டிவிட்டு என் சோப்பு சீப்பு செலவுக்கு 25 ரூபாய் அனுப்புவார். பங்க் ஐயர் கடையிலும் க்ரோம்பேட்டை ஸ்டேஷன் கடையிலும் எப்போதும் கடன்தான். எப்போது அதைத் தீர்த்தேன் என்று ஞாபகமில்ல.

இன்ஜினீயரிங் படிப்பு முடிந்து ஆல் இண்டியா ரேடியோவில் ட்ரெய்னிங்கின்போது ஸ்டைப்பெண்டாக ரூ.150 கிடைத்தது. ஆகா கனவு போல உணர்ந்தேன். அத்தனை பணத்தை அதுவரை பார்த்ததே இல்லை. சவுத் இண்டியா போர்டிங் அவுசில் சாப்பாட்டுச் செலவு ரூ.75. பாக்கி 75_ஐ என்ன செய்வது என்று திணறினேன். உல்லன் ஸ்வெட்டர், ஏகப் பட்ட புத்தகங்கள் என்று வாங்கித் தள்ளினோம். மாசக் கடைசியில் ஒரு ரூபாய், ரெண்டு ரூபாய் மிச்சமிருந்தது.

அதன்பின் வேலை கிடைத்தது. 1959_ல் சென்ட்ரல் கவர்மெண்டில் ரூ.275 சம்பளம். அப்பாவுக்கு ஒரு டிரான் சிஸ்டர் வாங்கிக் கொடுத்தேன். அம்மா எதுவும் வேண்டாம் என்று சொல்லி விட்டாள். ஒரு மாண்டலின் வாங்கி ராப்பகலாக சாதகம் பண்ணினேன். வீட்டுக்குள் ஆம்பிளிஃபயர், ரிகார்ட் ப்ளேயர் எல்லாம் வைத்து அலற வைத்தேன். எல்லாவற்றையும் அம்மா சகித்துக் கொண்டிருந்தாள்.

“பி.எஸ்சி., பரீட்சை எழுதி டில்லிக்கு டெக்னிக்கல் ஆபீசராக வந்துவிட்டேன். சம்பளம்? மயங்கிவிடாதீர்கள் ரூ.400! முதன்முதலாக ஐ.ஓ.பி.யில் என் பெயரில் ஒரு அக்கவுண்ட், சகட்டு மேனிக்கு புத்தகங்கள், வெஸ்பா ஸ்கூட்டர் அலாட்மெண்ட் ஆன போது உலகத்தின் உச்சியைத் தொட்டமாதிரி இருந்தது. அடுத்தபடி பாரத் எலக்ட்ரானிக்ஸில் டெபுட்டி மேனேஜராகச் சேர்ந்தபோது சம்பளம் முதல் முதலாக நான்கு இலக்கத்தைத் தொட்டது. பங்களூருக்கு இடமாற்றம். செகண்ட் ஹாண்டில் கருப்பு அம்பாஸடர் கார்; திருமணம்.

என்னிடம் ஒரு பழக்கம் தொடர்ந்து இருந்து வந்தது - ஒரு அளவுக்கு மேல் பணம் சேர்க்க மாட்டேன், சேராது. எப்போதும், தேவைக்குச் சற்றே சற்று குறைவாகவே பணம் இருக்கும். இதில் ஒரு பரவசம் இருக்கிறது. யாராவது வந்து பெரிசாக எதிர்பார்த்து கடன் கேட்டால் வேஷ்டியை அவிழ்த்து ஸாரி, பாங்க் புத்தகத்தைத் திறந்து காட்டிவிடலாம். 

ஒரு சிறிய அறிவுரை, 

• அதிகப் பணம் சேர்க்காதீர்கள். இம்சை, தொந்தரவு... இன்று பலபேருக்கு என்னிடம் சந்தேகம். சினிமாவுக்கு எல்லாம் கதை எழுதி வருகிறாய், அவர்கள் இரண்டு கைகளிலும் தாராளமாய் பணம் கொடுப்பார்கள். புத்தகங்களிலிருந்தும் பத்திரிகைகளிலிருந்தும் ராயல்டி வரும். இத்தனை பணத்தை வைத்துக் கொண்டு என்னதான் செய்கிறாய்?

என் அனுபவத்தில் -

• ஓரளவுக்கு மேல் பணம் சேர்ந்து விட்டால், ஒரு பெரிய செலவு வந்தே தீரும். இது இயற்கை நியதி. 
• அந்தச் செலவு வைத் தியச் செலவாக இருக்கும் அல்லது வீடு, கார் ஏதாவது வாங்கினதுக்கு வங்கிக்கடனாக இருக்கும்¢. 
• இதிலிருந்து முக்கியமாக நான் கண்டுகொண்டது, செலவு செய்தால்தான் மேற்கொண்டு பணம் வருகிறது என்பதே.

இன்று பலருக்கு என் பண மதிப்பைப் பற்றிய மிகையான எண்ணங்கள் இருக்கலாம். உண்மை நிலை இதுதான். இன்றைய தேதிக்கு கடன் எதுவும் இல்லை. என்னிடம் இருக்கும் பணத்தில் குற்றநிழல் எதுவும் கிடையாது. ராத்திரி படுத்தால் பத்து நிமிஷத்தில் தூக்கம் வந்து விடுகிறது.

எகனாமிஸ்ட்டுகள் என்ன என்னவோ கணக்குகள் போட்டு ஜிஎன்பி, ஜிடிபி என்றெல்லாம் புள்ளிவிவரம் தரலாம். நான் தரும் எளிய புள்ளி விவரம் இது. ஒரு ரூபாய், அதன் வாங்கும் மதிப்பு கவனித்தால் உங்களுக்கு இந்தியப் பொருளாதாரம் சட்டென்று புரிந்துவிடும். இந்த வாங்கும் மதிப்பு காலப்போக்கில் குறைந்து கொண்டே வந்திருக்கிறது. முன்பெல்லாம் ஒரு ரூபாய் ஒரு வாரம் வரை தங்கியது. இன்று ஒரு மணிநேரம்கூட, சிலசமயம் ஒரு நிமிஷம் கூட தங்குவதில்லை.

யோசித்துப் பாருங்கள். 

History repeats itself... note by HSBC MF

 

Catching a falling knife : Maths behind Gain - Loss

It is natural to look at mathematics in absolute terms. For instance a the difference in share price fall from Rs.100 to 90 and from Rs.20 to Rs.10 - is the same 10 Rupee. But in % terms - in the first case it is 10% fall and in second case it is a 50% fall. 

And there are instances when price falls from Rs.100 to Rs.20 - a 80% fall. 

And continues to slide from Rs.20 to Rs.10 : a further fall of 50% fall. 

While for the earlier investor (at Rs.100), this fall to Rs.10 translates to a 90% fall - up from earlier 80%. For a new investor at Rs.20 - this fall to Rs.10 is a 50% fall.

But a bounce back from Rs.10 to Rs.100 can give you a 900% returns. 

Many investors 'dream of' doing bottom fishing and get rewarded. 

But in reality catching a falling knife is dangerous - unless you are an expert.

Muhurat Trading - History

Muhurat Trading is an exceptional trading day - when the time and day is flexed to suit the sentiments of Indian Culture. No other festival - across the globe has got this special treatment. 

Vikram Samvat is a calendar system followed by Hindus and Sikhs in the Indian subcontinent. In fact, it is the official calendar of Nepal. This calendar is used as a regional one in many states, mainly in the central, west and north India.

An inscription dating back to the year 971 CE indicates the beginning of Samvat in 842 CE and is associated with King Vikramaditya. As per several historians, King Chandragupta II conferred upon himself the title of Vikramaditya, also changing the name of that era to 'Vikram Samvat'. And Diwali marks the beginning of new year (Samvat). 

Every year, on Diwali Day, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) come alive with a unique and age-old tradition known as 'muhurat trading'. This annual ritual, performed during the auspicious Laxmi Puja ceremony on Diwali, has deep-rooted significance in Indian culture and the world of finance.

The tradition of muhurat trading has its origins in the BSE in 1957 and was later adopted by the NSE in 1992. Within the Indian trading community, muhurat trading on Diwali is considered highly auspicious, and it is believed that participating in this special trading session can bring wealth and good luck throughout the year.

The celebration of Diwali, with the worship of the goddess Laxmi, the deity of wealth and prosperity, holds great importance. According to Hindu tradition, the planets align in favourable positions during this time, making it especially auspicious for financial endeavours.

Does that mean that investments made on Muhurat trading give you good profits? Not really. It just means new year and you start new book of accounts. And an invest made on the auspicious day marks a new beginning. 

Investing is a continuous process. There is no end to it. Same holds true with investing on Muhurat day also.

Olympics of Investing

We can learn from everything around us. There seems to be a common thread that results in better results. Here is a beautiful article on the essence and relevance of Olympics (rather any game) with investing. Hope you get the message.

 

What goes... Comes back... The Jet Airways Way

What you do to others WILL come back to you. It is a sort of cause and effect. And when we see LIVE EXAMPLES of such cases, we refrain from inflicting pain on others for selfish gains. At the end - Wise people learn from others mistakes. JET AIRWAYS could be one such example.

Teary-eyed and dejected, aviation veteran Naresh Goyal felt so hopeless about the system that he told a special court last week that he would prefer to die in prison. For a man who ruled Indian skies, that's quite a fall. 

While one may pitty the fate of a person who once ruled Indian skies, the reasons that lead to his fall his unethical business tactice can give us a different opinion.

To read the full article, kindly visit: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/bq-blue-exclusive/naresh-goyals-turbulent-ride-from-ruling-indian-skies-to-hopeless-imprisonment

• Hailing from Punjab, Goyal started his career in the late 1960s in a relative's travel agency. 
• He quickly learned the ropes and set up Jetair Pvt. in 1974 to provide sales and marketing services to foreign airlines. 
• After representing global giants such as Cathay Pacific and Air France for years, he established Jet Airways soon after the Indian economy was liberalised. 
• When Jet Airways launched commercial operations in 1993, its competitors were Damania Airways, Sahara India or Air Sahara, ModiLuft and East-West Airlines, along with government-owned Indian Airlines and Air India. 
• There was a time when any major aviation policy by the government was speculated to have the prints of  Mr.Naresh Goyal's.
• "He knowingly or unknowingly caused more harm to Indian aviation than good through his ways of functioning," Jitender Bhargava, former executive director of Air India, told NDTV Profit. "Goyal prevented airlines from starting operations and later growing by creating stumbling blocks through political clout and influence in the policymaking—only to thwart competition."  The 5/20 policy formulated by the government can be cited as one major example of that, according to Bhargava. The policy required carriers to complete five years of commercial operations and own 20-aircraft fleet to begin international operations. No other country had such a rule. Goyal, according to sector watchers, was even said to be behind derailing Air India's divestment in early 2000s.
• Goyal, according to sector watchers, was even said to be behind derailing Air India's divestment in early 2000s.
• The Tata Group, along with Singapore Airlines, had withdrawn the proposal after criticism from trade unions and political backlash. 
• As a result, Jet Airways climbed higher and gained domestic market share, backed by its world-class service with no other airline to match it. 
• The next step was going public, which it executed successfully. Its initial public offer was subscribed 4.25 times on the first day.

Emerging Threats 

• Indian market changed with the launch of new carriers such as InterGlobe Aviation Ltd.'s IndiGo, Air Deccan, SpiceJet and Go Air (now Go First). As the number of flyers increased, low-cost became the name of the game and the quality of services took a back seat. 
• Feeling the threat from budget airlines, Goyal overplayed his hand by acquiring Air Sahara for Rs 2,200 crore. After the expensive acquisition, Jet Airways' costs began to balloon on international routes. Rapid network expansion, not enough in-house talent and price war among low-cost carriers created the perfect storm that rocked Jet Airways. The 2008 financial crisis hit demand and oil prices soared. Jet Airways, already burdened with rising costs, resorted to heavy borrowing.

Unending Turbulence  

• When Kingfisher Airlines was in dire need of funds and Vijay Mallya was pleading the government to allow foreign airlines to buy stake in domestic carriers, Goyal was reported to be against such a policy and denied the need to tie-up with a foreign carrier. When Mallya's Kingfisher stopped commercial operations in 2012, Jet Airways' efforts for survival came under the spotlight.
• Conveniently, Goyal changed his view: "Today, I may not need FDI, but tomorrow I may need," he was quoted as saying. In another "twist of fate" that year, Jet Airways got a booster as the government changed its foreign direct investment policy. It allowed foreign airlines to own up to 49% stake in Indian carriers, just when Goyal was hunting for more funds to keep Jet Airways going. 
• Etihad Airways acquired 24% stake in Jet Airways for Rs 2,000 crore when India and Abu Dhabi agreed to increase flights under the bilateral agreement. But that respite didn't last. Over the next few years, IndiGo's business model, led by single aircraft and frugal operations, became something to imbibe to run a sustainable and profitable airline. Jet Airways again needed funds. 
• In April 2019, a consortium led by State Bank of India refused to inject more funds in Jet Airways as it crumbled under huge debt and years of loss. Etihad didn't come to rescue either this time. At the time, Jet Airways operated over 120 aircraft and flew on hundreds of routes. And the airline was grounded and ceased operations. Soon after, the lenders initiated bankruptcy proceedings against the airline and the National Company Law Tribunal admitted the case in June 2019. Allegations came to the fore that Goyal was siphoning funds from the airline. Jet Airways' board, which included Goyal and his wife, had to step down. The Enforcement Directorate began examining Etihad Airways' investment in Jet Airways, reportedly on claims of violation in foreign direct investment rules. Goyal was barred from leaving India.

Losing Hope 

• In May 2023, Canara Bank filed a complaint with the Central Bureau of Investigation, accusing Goyal of cheating, criminal conspiracy, criminal breach of trust, and criminal misconduct. Based on the CBI's FIR, he was arrested in September by the Enforcement Directorate for alleged fraud of Rs 538 crore. The case has since been heard in a special court.
• When Goyal first emerged in the aviation scene, many pointed to his charming ways and how he had the potential to become Indian aviation's face after JRD Tata. Years later, during the hearing last week, he stood with folded hands and bowing before the court to express how he's missing his bedridden wife in the jail. "He came before the court with continuous tremors in his whole body and hands," the judge said. The 74-year-old said his wife is bedridden and their only daughter is unwell, too. Referring him to JJ Hospital would be useless and he conveyed reluctance to travel to hospital from the Arthur Road jail.

While the Airlines may Survive - Naresh Goyal may not. That is true for any one who does unethical business.

WHAT GOES... COMES BACK... THE JET AIRWAYS WAY

Reflections of 2023

 We had made an YouTube Video on "Roller Coster Ride" on 15th may 2022 - explaining the underlying opportunities in the then lackluster markets. Indeed it was a timely video showcasing the merits of investing.

Infact, it could be interesting to watch this video again and see what we said then:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNHnDNswCzg

While many of us are rejoicing the market rally, and many think the turning point for markets has been the state election results on November 2023, markets showed signs of growth way back in May 2023 itself - exactly one year after we posted the above mentioned video.

Since FII's were net sellers since october 2021, it was the Mid and Small caps which were ruling the roost till Nov 2023. The state election results gave clarity on upcoming elections and FII's joined the bandwagon to pump in record money in the last two months of 2023. 

In Nifty 50 stocks, 48 ended the year positively. And large cap index gained 20% in 2023. 

But the real winners in 2023 has been Mid and Small Caps - which gained 44% and 49% respectively. 

The Midcap 100 index surged 46%, driven by REC Ltd. and Power Finance Corp., which gained 3.5 and 3.4 times, respectively. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd. witnessed a near threefold increase in its share price, led by the push for indigenous defence production. Of the Midcap 100 pack, 93 stocks ended in the positive. Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd., ACC Ltd., and Page Industries Ltd. were the top laggards and experienced declines of 22.5% and 10%, respectively.

The Smallcap 250 rose by 49% in 2023. BSE Ltd., with fourfold gains, emerged as the top performer in the pack. Suzlon Energy Ltd. saw a 3.6-fold increase, capitalising on the thrust for renewable energy. Campus Activewear Ltd. and Easy Trip Planners Ltd. faced challenges. 

Sectorwise, 

• Nifty Realty led with an 81% surge, driven by Prestige Estates Projects Ltd., DLF Ltd., and Brigade Enterprises Ltd. 
• Nifty Auto and Nifty Pharma also performed well, growing by over 47% and 32%, respectively. 
• The auto sector gained due to steady demand, a softening of commodity prices and favourable policy changes this year. 
• However, sectors like Nifty Bank, Nifty Oil and Gas, and Nifty Financial Services experienced more modest gains of 11%, 12%, and 12%, respectively.

IPO Market:

A vibrant IPO market is curcial for a healthy secondary market. 2023 will certainly be remembered as the year of the primary markets. And more infamously, IPOs in the SME space. Out of over 150 companies that hit the primary markets in the SME space, 51 companies hit subscription levels of over 100 times and 12 of those hit subscription levels of over 300 times! A logistics company received subscription for Rs 10,100 crore against the IPO size of Rs 32 crore. Another SME IPO received Rs 18,800 crore worth of bids against an IPO size of Rs 78 crore. And the most subscribed IPOs were not oversubscribed 'merely' 100-200 times. Kahan Packaging was subscribed 730 times. Speaks of the mania in the markets in 2023. 

Going Forward...

FII's have just resumed their investments. And you have a BIG event in 2024 - Central Government elections in May 2024. Markets are running up on expectations. But investors need to keep in mind the following:

• Investments made when past year(s) returns have been muted - gives Best returns.
• Last year has been spectacular. Expecting similar kind of returns in 2024 may be tough.
• Run up to the elections is usually noisy. That can create lots of volatality.
• Cut in interest rates is widely expected in 2024. If that happens - that can fan liquidity and fuel inflation too. It can pump up stock price.
• Above all - a run up in stock price (hence MF's NAV) has to be substantiated by rise in earnings. It is ultimately the fundamentals which justify / determine the stock price.
• Having said that - while one year forward may be tough to predict, over next 3 to 5 years Indian economy is bound to do well. 
• So Investors who need funds in next 1 years needs to be cautious. All others can invest at every opportunity you may get in the markets.
• But it FII's continue to invest - 2024 could be an year for Large cap's. 

So multitude of factors - election results + Interest rate cut + FII Investment + Earnings Growth justification - are likely to dictate 2024. Asusual - it is Interesting times ahead...

Be Passionate - Be Crazy - #Motilal Oswal

 The difference between being passionate and being crazy is often hazy at best.

The most passionate individuals often seem to be nuts. The most gifted and successful artists, entrepreneurs, scientists, you name it, are often said to be a little crazy.

One such is our Stock broking partner - M/s Motilal Oswal Financial Services at Mumbai. While their office - Motilal Oswal Tower (MOT) is an iconic building in Prabha devi in Mumbai, the things that they do there is sometimes wiered. While illuminating the building to suite the occassion like Christmas or Diwali is ok, there are things that may look crazy to first timers.

It begins with the LIFT BUTTON - For going up - you have BULL symbol and for going down you have a BEAR symbol. That sums it up. Do they mean - what goes up cannot stay there for ever and it has to come down. ... or something else. 

And I leave it to your imagination on how dealing room, Cafetaria and wash rooms looks like. 

You can breath, see, feel and experience stock market all through this building. Indeed it is a place to visit for stock market investors . 

TIA 20-20 : Stock Taking

As I gear up to attend TIA’s Bullet proof Investing on coming Saturday 9^th Sept 2023, I was reflecting on the immediate past event – the 20-20 event that happened on 18^th Feb 2023. 

Tamilnadu Investors Association (TIA) is India’s first investor associations - way back in 1989. it is one of India's finest associations imparting knowledge on regular basis. They conduct two mega PAID events every year : 20-20 being one and Bullet Proof Investing is another. Both events happen in Chennai – on national, if not on international standard. For me, it is like PILGRIMAGE TO OMAHA - to attend Warren Buffet's BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY AGM.

20-20 is an event in which 20 Investors / analysts come and share their investment thesis for 20 minutes each. Hence the name 20-20. The main take away for investors is – they can learn how to approach in analysing – rather than buying a stock blindly on hear say. And if at all one invests, they need to do their due diligence before investing.

And Bullet Proof investing is an event where in veteran investors – who have proved themselves – share their rich experience. Unlike 20-20, there are usually 6 speakers in the Bullet Proof Investing Seminar.

While it is a paid event – the ideas shared there are immediately / instantly tweeted by ‘good hearts’. And in stock market – all that investors want is TIPS. As a result, the points discussed there become open secret. 

But the real objective of such meeting is to make investors involve in evolving an investment process and stay invested for long term.

20-20 Stock Analysis:

This calendar year’s 20-20 event happened on 18^th Feb 2023. On Monday – 20^th Feb 2023, Sensex was then 60691. As of 6^th Sept 2023, while composing this article, Sensex is 65650. On Sensex, that’s a gain of 4959 points or 8% gain. 

But the portfolio of stocks discussed in 20-20 event on 18^th Feb 2023 has already gained by 51%. And some of the ideas discussed are real DIAMONDS. Out of the 20 stocks, 3 stocks did not fire up. All other have rewarded investors decently.

Moral for investors here is:

• Investors need to put in time and efforts to understand the companies they invest in.
• In this internet age, many investors get lured by Youtube for quick money. They are not ready to do the homework – understand the company, gain conviction and then invest.

• While looking at the list above – it is easy for investors to identify those companies that gave good returns. And many of them would prefer to avoid companies that gave negative returns. But in reality, we know the results only in hindsight. No one – not even the presenter of these investment ideas would have imagined the results. In stock investing, the participation in a companies growth is much more important. Profits are often by-products of this investment journey.
• There is little use in just getting to just know the stock ideas. The real real benefit can flow through only if you invest in those ideas in which you have gained conviction. But to gain conviction you need to spend time in attending such seminars. 
• Now, some may think – IS IT WORTH THE TIME?. Taking a day off and attending such events  - that too a paid event - may sound like WASTE OF TIME AND MONEY. But the results speak for themselves. I leave it to the readers to decide on the worthiness part.

To conclude – You donot need an invitation to make money. If you wish to make it, you need to be open minded and be willing to learn, invest and benefit. 

How much you need to gain to recover your loss:

 We had published an article in this blog way back in 17th Jan 2018 - on the topic When to Cut loss. You may read the article in following link : 

https://easyinv.blogspot.com/2018/01/when-to-cut-loss.html

Interestingly a article on similar topic came up recently with a good illustration. Hence thought of publishing it here for better clarity:

Tamilnadu Investor Association - TIA: A Boon to Investors.

 

Indian Companies by highest percentage earning revenue from China

 

Sensex - Past, Present & Future

Below mentioned has been a Whatsapp forward. Found it interesting. Hence publishing. Disclaimer: Data not verified by PR or Easy Investments.

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 1. BSE completed 43 years.

2. There were around 11,000 trading days in last 43 years.

3. Observations on regular basis and positive and negative returns occurrences.

Frequency          Positive      Negative 

Daily                 53% time    47% time

Weekly             56% time    44% time

Monthly           61% time     39% time 

Quarterly         64% time    36% time 

Yearly              72% time     28% time 

3 years            89% time     11% time 

5 years            96% time     4% time 

10 years         100% time 

4. Bse Sensex delivered 15.5% CAGR returns over last 43 years. 

5. Decadal returns dispersion 

Period                      CAGR

1980-1990                21.6%

1990-2000               14.3%

2000-2010                17.8%

2010-2020                 8.8%.*              

2020...to 21Dec,2022..........….24.8%

6. BSE Sensex returns 15.5%. Add 1.4% average dividend yield of 1.4% of last 43 years. At 16.9% compounding the value of BSE is actually around 80,000 level.

7. Longest period without returns was from 1994 till 2003. 9 years in total.

8. Since 2002 in last 18 years NO single 7 years rolling returns were without returns. This means since 2002 if you ever invested and kept money for minimum period of 7 years then you would have never lost money.

9. But what is most surprising and rewarding has been the performance of actively managed equity funds. Here are the data:

Category           20 years      

                             CAGR    

Hybrid                 15.17%        15.96%

Hybrid - ex        16.37%       16.74%

Diversified           18.11%        16.25%

Diversified-ex    19.89%      18.10%

ELSS                    18.45%       18.20%

ELSS-ex             19.66%      21.47%*

*All Funds             17.52%       16.41%

All Funds-ex      18.73%      18%*

* excluding LIC/JM/Taurus/Quant MF schemes. This mean schemes of HDFC/ Nippon (earlier Reliance)/ Birla/ ICICI Pru/ SBI/ Principal/ Canara Rebecco/ Franklin etc.)

10. BSE Sensex was at 3800 in June 1996 (26years back). In last 26 years average-ex MF delivered 18% CAGR. Had BSE Sensex delivered as much as average MF schemes then the value of BSE Sensex should have been:*

At 16.4% CAGR, BSE Sensex should be around 1,70,000 levels

At 18% CAGR, BSE Sensex should be around 2,38,000 levels.

Investing Demystified

It is natural to save for the rainy days. You would have seen ants carrying grains and depositing them in their homes. Since these are successful traits, many species, including human beings have inherited them.

But in the age of e-coms, people save what is left over after their expenses. But if someone wants a healthy financial future, income minus savings should beyour expenses. In other words, regular saving a portion of the monthly earnings is crucial to financial freedom.

To read this complete article publishes in www.businessquest.in, click here

Is it Time - Women adorn the 'Hat of Investor' and contribute to their families?

Below mentioned is an article published in the NEWS WHEEL - The news letter of Inner Wheel Club of Madurai City in August 2017. The write up is relevant to every women. Hope this motivates them to take active part in managing the investments of their family and contribute towards Financial Freedom.

Basics of Mutual Funds...Wealth Creation Strategies...செல்வம் சேர்க்கும் செயல்திட்டம்:

On 17th June 2017, an INVESTORS AWARENESS MEETING was organized by Tamil Financial weekly - Nanayam Vikatan and Reliance Mutual Fund. Being a public awareness meeting wide publicity was undertaken and was attended by around 450 people at Madittsia Hall in Madurai. Being a public meeting, we anticipated a cross section of society to attend - right from Working class, Business people, Retired people, Youngsters, Men, Women and above all across communities. Hence our presentation had to connect with everyone of them.

We prepared an all new presentation that could connect well with the public, that too in Tamil - hence was well received by the audience. We were quiet satisfied with the results.

But the youtube video of this meeting that was uploaded on 23rd June 2017 has been viewed 90,601 times till today-24th Dec 2018. The count keeps going up every passing day. It is really heartening that many aspiring and existing investors are finding some guidance out of this video and are making informed investment decisions. Thanks to everyone of them for making the video a real hit.

We keep getting emails and phone from viewers who had found it simple and easier to understand and wanted some more information about Mutual Funds. Posting the relevant links here for your kind reference. You may reach us at : invest@easyinvest.co.in.

Should you invest based on Dividends declared by Shares?

Below mentioned is a response given by us for a reader's question in Tamil Financial Magazine Nanayam Vikatan dated 16th July 2017. For those who could not read tamil, do send an email to invest@easyinvest.co.in - we can get back with a translated version.