Showing posts with label Interview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Interview. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 2, 2024
Sunday, July 2, 2023
Monday, May 5, 2014
Prashant Jain on "How life has changed over the last 20 years as a fund manager :"
Launched in 1994 by the erstwhile Twentieth Century Asset Management Co. Ltd, HDFC Prudence Fund—arguably India’s most successful balanced fund—was then known as Centurion Prudence Fund. Though its fund house changed hands twice—Zurich India Asset Management Co. Ltd acquired it first in 1999 and then HDFC Asset Management Co. Ltd acquired Zurich India in 2003—Prashant Jain has continued to manage this scheme. He now holds the record for managing a single mutual fund scheme in India for the longest duration at a stretch. HDFC Prudence has returned 19.1% since its inception and claims to have about 2,500 investors who have stayed invested in it throughout these 20 years. In a conversation, Jain tells us how life has changed in these 20 years as a fund manager, and why certain other things remain the same.
How has your approach towards HDFC Prudence changed over the years? It started off as a small fund; today is one of India’s largest equity-oriented schemes. Corpus has grown, times have changed.
Nothing much. Tax treatment of balanced funds has changed; they now need to maintain 65% allocation to equities. Earlier it was possible to lower the exposure to equities.
As far as size is concerned, in my opinion, all funds in India are minuscule. India’s equity market capitalization is about Rs.74 trillion.
Compared to this, Rs.5,000 crore worth of schemes is minuscule (0.07%). So, there aren’t any large funds in India. In fact, all mutual funds in India collectively own just about 2.5 % of the equity markets. The atmosphere has changed though. Way back in 1991, when I started my career, there was no screen-based trading; there were no mobile phones. While travelling, we would stop at a public call booth to check on the markets. Research from brokerages was less and information gathering itself was a major activity. I remember we had tied up with a few scrap paper dealers to sell annual reports to us by the kilo. No company visited us in our office except at the time of public issues. There was no investor relations role in companies. There were no star ratings done on mutual funds. Airfares were less affordable and we were advised to keep travel to a minimum, unlike today, when people have to be prodded to travel more.
Despite the explosion in information availability and other changes, the nature and character of the markets and its participants remains unchanged.
Markets continue to be imperfect and driven by sentiments in the short run. And, are close to perfect and driven by fundamentals in the long run. Investor behaviour continues to be driven as much by fear and greed today as it was then.
There have been very few instances of mutual funds being managed by one individual for so long. Notable exceptions abroad being Anthony Bolton, for about 28 years at Fidelity and Peter Lynch of Fidelity US for 13 years. In India, there are Templeton’s Siva Subramanian and Sukumar Rajah with about 14 years each. What do you think is the reason for this?
The nature of a fund manager’s job is such that performance tends to be volatile particularly over short to medium periods. Further, given the relative nature of performance measurement, it is virtually impossible for a majority of managers to do well at any point of time. This, and the short-term focus of many market participants, could be important factors for the short tenures of mutual fund managers.
Besides, desire to work in more established companies or better compensation or bigger roles and more remunerative structures like hedge funds or private equity funds for similar work could be some of the other reasons.
I do not have any targets for tenure in mind. I hope to be associated with this scheme till the time I enjoy it and am able to do justice to it. However, I do wish that whenever I stop managing this scheme, the net asset value (NAV) will be at an all-time high, so that anyone who has invested with the fund at any point of time is in money.
When a fund manager manages a scheme for so long, is it possible for him or her to become biased towards it? Can the manager get so emotionally attached that over a period of time, the fund manager doesn’t take adequate risks, just to protect one’s own legacy?
It is possible, but in my opinion, that has not happened in this case. In fact, some feel that HDFC Prudence Fund takes more risk. For example, 2013 was not a good year for this scheme, as the portfolio had (with the benefit of hindsight) higher risk than the benchmark and peers. Tapering in the US and its aftermath adversely impacted performance, and it is only in the past few quarters that the scheme is back near the top.
Something similar happened in 2008, after the Lehman crisis. At that time, too, it took nearly a year to come back.
My consistent effort has been to do what is best for the scheme over the medium to long term. In my
opinion, this is the only way to perform and to do well over the long term. Neither performance nor legacy can be maintained by reducing the risk. Our job is to take risks—not recklessly, but well thought out ones—and to manage the same.
How important is the debt component in a balanced fund? HDFC Prudence has managed to beat nearly 80% of the equity schemes in 5- and 10-year periods. Do you take active positions regularly in its debt component or is it just run as a cash fund?
Debt is a very important component. Though over long periods, returns from debt are meaningfully lower than equities, yet, at certain junctures, debt can outperform equities.
I have actively managed the debt portfolio—both in terms of duration and credit. In my opinion, active management of fixed income has added value over medium to long periods. I recollect way back, we had very patiently accumulated a large quantity of Tisco (now Tata Steel) secured premium notes and it was a top holding in the fund in the late 1990s at yield-to-maturity of about 22%. I must, however, add that presently there is very low, if any, credit risk in the portfolio as the payoffs are small.
Do you personally invest in this scheme?
A significant portion of my wealth is invested in HDFC Prudence Fund. Interestingly, there are about 2,500 investors who have been with this fund for 20 years.
Tell us about some of your best calls in this scheme.
Buying IT (information technology) stocks in the mid-1990s and reducing exposure in time in 1999; buying old economy stocks in sectors such as steel, auto, capital goods, banks, and others, during 1999-2000; not buying real estate and power utilities companies in 2007 and instead buying fast-moving consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, among others, have all played a role.
What’s been your biggest mistake in this fund?
Not owning stocks like Sun Pharmaceuticals and Asian Paints, in my opinion, were big mistakes.
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Don't Buy Recklessely : After hitting new highs, Nifty may crash to 5500 levels
Madhusudhan Kela of Reliance Capital explains to CNBC-TV18 that there is widespread consensus that 2013 will be a great year for the market and the economy on a culmination of various positive events and factors. However, he advises investors not to be overly gung-ho on equities and take a call after the announcement of the Budget begins to take effect.
Below is an edited transcript of the analysis on CNBC-TV18
Q: The market is knocking on the doors of 6,000. Is there a lot of upside in 2013?
A: The next two months till the announcement of the Budget, I expect the market will be broadly positive. The markets are up 30 percent on the back of only price-to-earnings (PE) multiple expansion virtually without any earning growth last year. The risk-reward is not as much in favour as it was six months ago.
The momentum is by the side and the market will not peak out in an environment like this where people are still cautious. So I would not be surprised if the market makes a new high before the Budget because there is culmination of - liquidity foreign flows, domestic investors wishing to participate and the roar of policymaking - before the Budget.
So I would not be surprised if the market hits a new high. But in this environment for long-term investors, who have been advocating equity. do not go to the other extreme and put everything you have in equity.
Q: So what's your prognosis- is the market going to move towards that new high after which it spends an extended period of time just trying to justify those levels and gain some kind of base or do you think its going to be an inverted-V kind of performance with all the good news in the first two months and then the market starts to come off?
A: It is too early to make a judgment. But I still feel that till the Budget there will be a culmination of a lot of positive factors. But after the Budget I would evaluate the impact of the Budget before I take a call.
Another favourable factor is that the global economic environment has been extremely calm in the last six-to-eight months. Investors seem to have forgotten the problems in Europe and America.
There is a widespread consensus among major domestic and foreign fund houses that 2013 is going to be extremely good. However, this does not mean investors can be overly bullish on the markets. The first quarter might be very positive but I don't rule out the market giving up 10-15 percent of its gains in the next quarter.
Q: There is another point of view which suggests that the first half will actually be difficult for global markets and the Indian market may struggle in that context. Do you see that as a likely outcome or do you think, with the way the market is shaping up, the market is going to touch that new high in the early part of the year and then go sideways?
A: The first quarter is when there will be maximum action in the markets. There is no doubt that the macro-economic environment will be better than what it was last year, but it remains to be seen, from a stock market point of view, how much of that has been priced in.
Q: What do you expect to see in terms of retail participation? Do you see retail participation coming in a big way once the market touches the 6000-6100 levels and will there be any kind of panic-buying this time?
A: I clearly see that coming. If retail participants wish to invest in equities, they have to be systematic and if they are already invested, there is no need to go whole-hog and invest all the funds at their disposal.
Retail investors need to be prepared for a dip because the longer-term Indian fundamentals are still intact. But after making 40-50 percent return, retail investors' expectations have to be muted.
Q: Dip of what magnitude? Will it be sub-5800 during the course of the first three-to-six months?
A: For the first six months, I would not rule out that. Again it is very difficult to pinpoint a level but if the market touches 6300-6400 before the Budget, the market can make a new high and go to 5500 by June, July or August. That is very much possible.
Q: How do you read the kind of flows we pulled last year because really thats been the most overwhelming factor for the market?
A: The FII inflows have been roughly USD 25 billion but a lot of it has not been reflected in the market. Close to Rs 65, 000 crore of these flows has gone to buy out long-term strategic stakes. Also for the whole of last year, the global environment was so bad that India was a destination by default.
So there should be little expectation of a repeat of inflows of this magnitude. I am also worried on the Rs 10-15,000 crore of redemption in the mutual fund and insurance in the last six months. So you see, domestic institutions are selling everyday.
The market's sole support rests on FII inflows and this poses great risk, It is not possible to rule out the adverse impact of reduced inflows on the market. In 2011, the market fell 20-25 percent on outflows of just USD 1 billion.
Q: You sound cautious. Is politics playing on your mind? Are you worried about the second half of the year and the impact of the elections on the run up for the market?
A: It is a combination of all the factors. The market is coming off from the 40-50 percent return in the last one year. Volatility across the world has collapsed in all asset classes and the VIX Index is at a multi-year low. An economic environment with volatility being so compressed cannot exist forever. I expect the markets to be far more volatile in 2013 and Im on a wait-and-watch mode if the markets after offering a return of 50 percent returns posts a downside in volatility.
Thirdly, all the gains in the last one year have come only on account of PE multiple expansion and a lot of it is yet to reflect on the real fundamentals. So all these factors are making me circumspect of going overboard and telling investors who have missed out on equities, that this is the time to be fully invested.
Below is an edited transcript of the analysis on CNBC-TV18
Q: The market is knocking on the doors of 6,000. Is there a lot of upside in 2013?
A: The next two months till the announcement of the Budget, I expect the market will be broadly positive. The markets are up 30 percent on the back of only price-to-earnings (PE) multiple expansion virtually without any earning growth last year. The risk-reward is not as much in favour as it was six months ago.
The momentum is by the side and the market will not peak out in an environment like this where people are still cautious. So I would not be surprised if the market makes a new high before the Budget because there is culmination of - liquidity foreign flows, domestic investors wishing to participate and the roar of policymaking - before the Budget.
So I would not be surprised if the market hits a new high. But in this environment for long-term investors, who have been advocating equity. do not go to the other extreme and put everything you have in equity.
Q: So what's your prognosis- is the market going to move towards that new high after which it spends an extended period of time just trying to justify those levels and gain some kind of base or do you think its going to be an inverted-V kind of performance with all the good news in the first two months and then the market starts to come off?
A: It is too early to make a judgment. But I still feel that till the Budget there will be a culmination of a lot of positive factors. But after the Budget I would evaluate the impact of the Budget before I take a call.
Another favourable factor is that the global economic environment has been extremely calm in the last six-to-eight months. Investors seem to have forgotten the problems in Europe and America.
There is a widespread consensus among major domestic and foreign fund houses that 2013 is going to be extremely good. However, this does not mean investors can be overly bullish on the markets. The first quarter might be very positive but I don't rule out the market giving up 10-15 percent of its gains in the next quarter.
Q: There is another point of view which suggests that the first half will actually be difficult for global markets and the Indian market may struggle in that context. Do you see that as a likely outcome or do you think, with the way the market is shaping up, the market is going to touch that new high in the early part of the year and then go sideways?
A: The first quarter is when there will be maximum action in the markets. There is no doubt that the macro-economic environment will be better than what it was last year, but it remains to be seen, from a stock market point of view, how much of that has been priced in.
Q: What do you expect to see in terms of retail participation? Do you see retail participation coming in a big way once the market touches the 6000-6100 levels and will there be any kind of panic-buying this time?
A: I clearly see that coming. If retail participants wish to invest in equities, they have to be systematic and if they are already invested, there is no need to go whole-hog and invest all the funds at their disposal.
Retail investors need to be prepared for a dip because the longer-term Indian fundamentals are still intact. But after making 40-50 percent return, retail investors' expectations have to be muted.
Q: Dip of what magnitude? Will it be sub-5800 during the course of the first three-to-six months?
A: For the first six months, I would not rule out that. Again it is very difficult to pinpoint a level but if the market touches 6300-6400 before the Budget, the market can make a new high and go to 5500 by June, July or August. That is very much possible.
Q: How do you read the kind of flows we pulled last year because really thats been the most overwhelming factor for the market?
A: The FII inflows have been roughly USD 25 billion but a lot of it has not been reflected in the market. Close to Rs 65, 000 crore of these flows has gone to buy out long-term strategic stakes. Also for the whole of last year, the global environment was so bad that India was a destination by default.
So there should be little expectation of a repeat of inflows of this magnitude. I am also worried on the Rs 10-15,000 crore of redemption in the mutual fund and insurance in the last six months. So you see, domestic institutions are selling everyday.
The market's sole support rests on FII inflows and this poses great risk, It is not possible to rule out the adverse impact of reduced inflows on the market. In 2011, the market fell 20-25 percent on outflows of just USD 1 billion.
Q: You sound cautious. Is politics playing on your mind? Are you worried about the second half of the year and the impact of the elections on the run up for the market?
A: It is a combination of all the factors. The market is coming off from the 40-50 percent return in the last one year. Volatility across the world has collapsed in all asset classes and the VIX Index is at a multi-year low. An economic environment with volatility being so compressed cannot exist forever. I expect the markets to be far more volatile in 2013 and Im on a wait-and-watch mode if the markets after offering a return of 50 percent returns posts a downside in volatility.
Thirdly, all the gains in the last one year have come only on account of PE multiple expansion and a lot of it is yet to reflect on the real fundamentals. So all these factors are making me circumspect of going overboard and telling investors who have missed out on equities, that this is the time to be fully invested.
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