Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stocks. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 24, 2026

MF - Stock - PMS : Which one for you?

 Almost everyone of us start investing small and gradually scale up – as we gain confidence. But some may be wondering whether to stick to one investment option or to invest in multiple ones.

While this decision to spread your investments depends on individuals risk profile, usually when we start investing – it is convenient and affordable to invest through the mutual fund route. Since mutual funds are well regulated by SEBI and managed by professional fund managers – it is the easiest option for any investor. What ever may be your investment duration – be it short term (one month to one year) or medium term (One year to three years) or long term (three years plus) - you have an investment option in mutual funds. This versatility of product range makes it easy to invest.

But in India - direct stock investing preceded mutual fund. Though the MF concept was born in 1960’s – it gained popularity only in the last twenty five years. But stock investing has been in practice even in pre independence era. And many investors have created huge wealth by investing directly in stocks – gaining both by share price appreciation and dividend income. Almost all investors get into direct stock investing dreaming that they will be one such lucky investor and create huge wealth. But majority investors had burned their fingers by investing on shortcuts, tips and not following up with their investments.

As a result – investors started looking for an investment option which is relatively easier to invest – without much efforts. Many investors wanted to invest small amount. And some wanted to invest regularly – like monthly basis. All these expectations were met by Mutual funds. As a result - unlike in 1990’s, in last 10 years or so - majority of investors – including small investors - have made money by investing through mutual funds. While the returns could have varied, we need to appreciate - something is better than nothing.

Does that mean stock investing is not at all required and only mutual funds would do? And where does PMS fit in the picture.

If you know that a company will do well and you have the time and passion to keep track of the company – then direct stock investing can give best results. Kindly note – the size of investment does not matter here. Even with small capital – you can do direct stock investing provided you have the time and passion.

Most investors do not have the time to keep track of the companies they invest in. For them mutual funds are the ideal choice. You benefit from fund manager’s expertise, diversification, low cost of management etc. And again - size of investment does not matter. Even small capital would do. And you can even go for regular investments like SIP’s.

And even for those who are passionate about investing in stocks, how many companies can they keep track?. May be 5 or 10 or 20. Not beyond that. And the biggest challenge for most investors is not identifying and investing – but the exit part. Many of us just buy it and forget it. And when the investment portfolio value grows in size – the number of stocks we hold also goes up. At some point it becomes difficult to keep track of all the stocks. In such situation – Portfolio Management Services (PMS) can make sense. While a mutual fund is also managed by a fund manager – there are differences between both. We had published the similarities and differences in our MONTHLY MEMO way back in Aug 2023. Publishing the table for better clarity.



And we need to keep in mind – not all PMS fund managers do well. Some of them are lousy. We need to identify talent and invest in them. Some of them may have high churn ratio. But if they deliver results – investing in PMS can make sense. For instance – while the index return of last one year has been pathetic – some PMS have delivered a return close to 15%. That’s pretty good. Attached below is actual performance of one such PMS.

To conclude –

  • If you can keep track of the stocks you invest – go for direct stock investing.
  • If not – then mutual fund is a better option.
  • If you have sizable portfolio (Rs.2 Crore Plus) – then you can slice a part of it and invest in PMS. But keep in mind your risk profile before investing. And the past returns are not guarantee of future returns.


Wednesday, March 4, 2026

Things to do when Market falls:

Investors like to invest when there is visibility and clarity. They invest more when the returns have been good. But the 'good' returns they see are out of the investments made when markets have been bad. 

  • And investors like to invest when they have money. But such opportunity (market fall) happens occassionally. When you are flushed with money - keep it aside and invest when such opportunity strikes. 
  • Having said that - it is not that easy to invest when market falls. Often we wait for clarity to emerge... and miss the opportunity. Hence invest gradually when market keeps falling. And it is an art to stretch your capital and invest to the maximum possible downcycle. If you have exhausted the reserved funds - do search for some more, squeeze out and invest.
  • More important - do not look for consensus to invest. The person next to you may scare you. Close your ears and keep investing. 
  • Some investors review their existing portfolio during market fall and feel disheartened to see the pathetic returns. Donot do that. When broader market falls - everything will fall. Your portfolio alone may not be insulated. You an earmark those you would like to knock off - but do that when markets have recovered.
  • Spreading your investments across industries, across assets can help you reduce volatility and improve consistency. Experts say, the ideal ratio could be 70% Equity, 15% Debt and 15% Gold. 
  • Investors normally like to invest only in assets which give THE BEST returns. So they switch / skew their portfolio - only to get hit when market reverses. Better to maintain a balance.


The message is simple - if you want good returns in equity - you need to take that bit of risk. No shortcuts there. Current IRAN War or rather the last 18 months market consolidation is one such opportunity. GRAB IT. Get it touch for assistance.

Thursday, February 27, 2025

Bonus Stocks: Britannia

 





https://www.britannia.co.in/


1978 - IPO - 100 shares - Rs.1500/-[(10+5)×100]

1983 - 2:5 Bonus - 140

1987 - 2:5 Bonus - 196

1989 - 1:2 Bonus - 294

1999 - 1:2 Bonus - 441

2010 - 5:1 Split - 2205

2018 - 1:1 Bonus - 4410

2018 - 2:1 Split - 8820

 

Price of One share as on 20.02.2025 - Rs.4824/-

 

Value of 8820 shares - Rs.4,25,47,680/-

 

28365 Bagger

 

CAGR since IPO - 24.37 %

 

Dividend amount for 2024 - Rs.6,48,270/-

 

Dividend Yield for 2024(on IPO amount)-43218 %

Bonus Stocks : INFOSYS


 


https://www.infosys.com/


1993 - IPO - 100 shares - Rs.9500/-

1994 - 1:1 bonus - 200

1997 - 1:1 bonus - 400

1999 - 1:1 bonus - 800

2000 - 2:1 split - 1600

2004 - 3:1 bonus - 6400

2006 - 1:1 bonus - 12800

2014 - 1:1 bonus - 25600

2015 - 1:1 bonus - 51200

2018 - 1:1 bonus - 102400

 

100 shares become 102400 shares

 

Value as on 17.02.2025 - Rs.18,87,23,200/-

 

19856 bagger since IPO

 

CAGR 36.24 %

 

Dividend yield for 2024 - 30181 %

Bonus Stock : Asian Paints

 




https://www.asianpaints.com/


1982-IPO-100 shares-Rs.2300/-(10+13)

1985 - 3:5 bonus - 160

1987 - 1:2 bonus - 240

1992 - 3:5 bonus - 384

1996 - 1:1 bonus - 768

2000 - 3:5 bonus - 1227

2003 - 1:2 bonus - 1840

2013 - 10:1 split - 18400

 

Value of one share as on 25.02.2025 - Rs.2224/-

 

Value of 18400 shares - Rs.4 09,21,600-

 

17792 bagger since IPO (CAGR 26.24%)

 

Dividend for 2024 - Rs.6,12,720/-

 

Dividend yield on IPO amount for 2024 - 26640%


Bonus History: HDFC - HDFC Bank

 





https://www.hdfcbank.com/


HDFC Ltd

1977 - IPO - One share - Rs.100/-

1999 - 10:1 Split - 10 shares

2002 - 1:1 Bonus - 20 shares

2010 - 5:1 Split - 100 shares

 

And the story continues with HDFC Bank

 

2023 - 42:25 Merger - 168 shares


Current Share price of HDFC Bank (25th Feb 2025) : Rs.1682 

Current value Rs.282576/-

 

2825 bagger since 1977 IPO

 

Current Dividend Yield on original investment 3276 %

 

Bonus History: Castrol India



https://www.castrol.com/en_in/india/home.html


IPO - 100 shares - Rs.1900/-

1990 - 3:5 bonus - 160

1992 - 3:5 bonus - 256

1994 - 1:1 bonus - 512

1995 - 3:5 bonus - 819

1999 - 1:1 bonus - 1638

2010 - 1:1 bonus - 3276

2012 - 1:1 bonus - 6552

2017 - 1:1 bonus - 13104

 

Castrol share price Rs.217/-

 

Value of 13104 shares Rs.28,43,568

 

1496 bagger since IPO

 

Dividend for 2024 Rs.7.5 × 13104 = Rs.98280/- last year

 

Bonus History : SUN PHARMA

 




https://sunpharma.com/


1994 - 100 shares – Issue Price = Rs.150 (10+140premium) - Rs.15000/-

2000 - 2:1 bonus - 300

2002 - 1:1 split - 600

2004 - 1:1 bonus - 1200

2010 - 5:1 split - 6000

2013 - 1:1 bonus - 12000

 

Share price of Sun Pharma on 25th Feb 2025: Rs.1613

Value of 12000 shares : Rs.1.93 crore

 

1290 bagger

Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Bonus Shares: ASTRAL

 




2007 - IPO - 100 shares - Rs.11500/-

2010 - 1:1 split - 200

2013 - 1:5:1split - 500

2014 - 1:1 split - 1000

2019 - 1:4 bonus - 1250

2021 - 1:3 bonus - 1666

2023 - 1:3 bonus - 2221


Current Price of Astral (25th Feb 2025) : Rs.1389. 

Value of 2221 shares Rs.30.85 Lakhs-

 

268 bagger

 

38.56% CAGR


Bonus History: INFO EDGE

 


2006 - IPO - 100 shares- Rs.32000/-

 

2010 - bonus - 1:1 - 200 shares

 

2012 - bonus - 1:1- 400 shares

 

Current price of Infoedge (25th Feb 2025): Rs.7323

Today's value - Rs.29.29 Lakhs

 

30 % CAGR since IPO

 

91 bagger


Bonus History : Sundram Fasteners

 

https://www.sundram.com/


1977 - 100 shares

1978 - 2:5 bonus - 140

1981 - 2:3 bonus - 232

1988 - 3:5 bonus - 370

1995 - 1:1 bonus - 740

2003 - 10:1 split - 7400

2006 - 1:1 bonus - 14800

 

Current Price of Sundram Fasteners (25th Feb 2025) : Rs.972

Current value Rs 1.44 crore


Bonus Stocks: ITC Ltd

 


1976 - IPO - 100 Shares of Face Value 10 with Premium of Rs.5 - Rs.1500/-

1978 - 1:5 bonus - 120

1980 - 1:5 bonus - 144

1989 - 1:1 bonus - 288

1991 - 3:5 bonus - 459

1994 - 1:1 bonus - 918

2005 - 1:2 bonus - 1377

2005 - 10:1 split - 13770

2010 - 1:1 bonus - 27540

2016 - 1:2 bonus - 41310

 6th Jan 2025   - 1:10 demerger ITC Hotels - 4131

 

 

Dividend yield on initial investment - Rs.5.68 lakh

 

11126 bagger through capital appreciation .

 

378 bagger through 2024 dividend (37866 % dividend yield)

 


Price of ITC Shares (25th Feb 2025) Rs. 404

Value of 41310 shares - Rs.1.67 crore



Price of ITC Hotels (25th Feb 2025) Rs.161
Value of 4131 ITC Hotels Shares : Rs.6.65 Lakhs

Bonus History : CIPLA

 


1979 - 100 shares - Rs.10000/-

1980 - 1:1 bonus - 200

1986 - 1:1 bonus - 400

1988 - 1:1 bonus - 800

1992 - 1:1 bonus - 1600

1994 - 10:1 split - 16000

1994 - 5:1 bonus - 96000

1999 - 2:1 bonus - 288000

2004 - 5:1 split - 1440000

2006 - 3:2 bonus - 3600000

 

Current Price of Cipla (on 25th Feb 2025) : Rs.1,463

Current value Rs.526,68,00,000 (Rs.526.68 Crores)

Bonus History : Sundaram FInance

 


1975 - 100 shares

1976 - 1:2 bonus - 150

1978 - 1:3 bonus - 200

1982 - 1:2 bonus - 300

1986 - 1:1 bonus - 600

1991 - 1:1 bonus - 1200

1995 - 1:1 bonus - 2400

2008 - 1:1 bonus - 4800

2012 - 1:1 bonus - 9600

2018 - 1:1 demerger - Sundaram Finance Holdings - 9600

 

Sundaram Finance Share Price as on 25th Feb 2025 : Rs.4479

Value of Sundaram Finance Rs 4,29,98,400 (Rs.4.29 crore)

 

Sundaram Finance Holding Share price as on 25th Feb 2025: Rs. 258

Value of Sundaram Finance Holdings: Rs.24,76,800 (24.76 Lakhs)


Bonus History - ANUH PHARMA


1993 - 100 shares

1994 - 3:1 bonus - 400

1999 - 1:1 bonus - 800

2006 - 1:1 bonus - 1600

2006 - 2:1 split - 3200

2010 - 2:1 bonus - 9600

2015 - 2:1 bonus - 28800

2020 - 1:1 bonus - 57600


Current Price of Anuh Pharma: Rs.160 - as on 25th Feb 2025

Curren Value : Rs.92,16,000 

Bonus History - L & T:

L&T:

https://www.larsentoubro.com/

1963 - 200 shares

1964 - 1:7 bonus - 228

1969 - 1:10 bonus - 250

1973 - 1:3 bonus - 333

1976 - 1:2 bonus - 499

1981 - 3:5 bonus - 800

1986 - 3:5 bonus - 1280

2004 - demerger


For every 10 shares of L & T share (Face Value Rs.10), 

5 shares L & T share (Face Value Rs.2) 

and 

4 shares of  Ultratech Cement share (Face Value: Rs.10)


So, L&T

2004 - 640

2006 - 1:1 bonus - 1280

2008 - 1:1 bonus - 2560

2013 - 1:2 bonus - 3840

2017 - 1:2 bonus - 5760

 

Current Price of L&T Shares (25th Feb 2025) - Rs.3225

Current value of 5760 L & T shares - Rs.1,85,76,000

 

Current Price of Ultratech Cement Shares : Rs. 10964

Current value of 512 Ultratech Cement shares: Rs.56,13,568/-

Thursday, May 16, 2024

Action... Reaction

 In stock market, the price movement is influenced by variety of factors like:

  • company specific news
  • sector specific news
  • Macro news on overall economy
  • Global factors like Geopolitical tensions
While all these factors are the tradional reasons for moving a share price, sometimes simple shift in buyer - seller demand can move the needle.

But whatever said and done, it is ultimately the fundamentals that dictate the stock price. 

If a stock price is running up but the fundamentals are not supportive, when the results are declared and is subdued - then the price crashes. Below mentioned screen shot is an evidence of the same. 



Having invested your hard earned money, you need to be mindful of the fact that - THE MOST IMPORTANT THING while investing is to keep an eye on the results of the companies in which you invested in. 

Sunday, January 14, 2024

What goes... Comes back... The Jet Airways Way

What you do to others WILL come back to you. It is a sort of cause and effect. And when we see LIVE EXAMPLES of such cases, we refrain from inflicting pain on others for selfish gains. At the end - Wise people learn from others mistakes. JET AIRWAYS could be one such example.

Teary-eyed and dejected, aviation veteran Naresh Goyal felt so hopeless about the system that he told a special court last week that he would prefer to die in prison. For a man who ruled Indian skies, that's quite a fall. 

While one may pitty the fate of a person who once ruled Indian skies, the reasons that lead to his fall his unethical business tactice can give us a different opinion.

To read the full article, kindly visit: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/bq-blue-exclusive/naresh-goyals-turbulent-ride-from-ruling-indian-skies-to-hopeless-imprisonment


  • Hailing from Punjab, Goyal started his career in the late 1960s in a relative's travel agency. 
  • He quickly learned the ropes and set up Jetair Pvt. in 1974 to provide sales and marketing services to foreign airlines. 
  • After representing global giants such as Cathay Pacific and Air France for years, he established Jet Airways soon after the Indian economy was liberalised. 
  • When Jet Airways launched commercial operations in 1993, its competitors were Damania Airways, Sahara India or Air Sahara, ModiLuft and East-West Airlines, along with government-owned Indian Airlines and Air India. 
  • There was a time when any major aviation policy by the government was speculated to have the prints of  Mr.Naresh Goyal's.
  • "He knowingly or unknowingly caused more harm to Indian aviation than good through his ways of functioning," Jitender Bhargava, former executive director of Air India, told NDTV Profit. "Goyal prevented airlines from starting operations and later growing by creating stumbling blocks through political clout and influence in the policymaking—only to thwart competition."  The 5/20 policy formulated by the government can be cited as one major example of that, according to Bhargava. The policy required carriers to complete five years of commercial operations and own 20-aircraft fleet to begin international operations. No other country had such a rule. Goyal, according to sector watchers, was even said to be behind derailing Air India's divestment in early 2000s.
  • Goyal, according to sector watchers, was even said to be behind derailing Air India's divestment in early 2000s.
  • The Tata Group, along with Singapore Airlines, had withdrawn the proposal after criticism from trade unions and political backlash. 
  • As a result, Jet Airways climbed higher and gained domestic market share, backed by its world-class service with no other airline to match it. 
  • The next step was going public, which it executed successfully. Its initial public offer was subscribed 4.25 times on the first day.

Emerging Threats 

  • Indian market changed with the launch of new carriers such as InterGlobe Aviation Ltd.'s IndiGo, Air Deccan, SpiceJet and Go Air (now Go First). As the number of flyers increased, low-cost became the name of the game and the quality of services took a back seat. 
  • Feeling the threat from budget airlines, Goyal overplayed his hand by acquiring Air Sahara for Rs 2,200 crore. After the expensive acquisition, Jet Airways' costs began to balloon on international routes. Rapid network expansion, not enough in-house talent and price war among low-cost carriers created the perfect storm that rocked Jet Airways. The 2008 financial crisis hit demand and oil prices soared. Jet Airways, already burdened with rising costs, resorted to heavy borrowing.

Unending Turbulence  

  • When Kingfisher Airlines was in dire need of funds and Vijay Mallya was pleading the government to allow foreign airlines to buy stake in domestic carriers, Goyal was reported to be against such a policy and denied the need to tie-up with a foreign carrier. When Mallya's Kingfisher stopped commercial operations in 2012, Jet Airways' efforts for survival came under the spotlight.
  • Conveniently, Goyal changed his view: "Today, I may not need FDI, but tomorrow I may need," he was quoted as saying. In another "twist of fate" that year, Jet Airways got a booster as the government changed its foreign direct investment policy. It allowed foreign airlines to own up to 49% stake in Indian carriers, just when Goyal was hunting for more funds to keep Jet Airways going. 
  • Etihad Airways acquired 24% stake in Jet Airways for Rs 2,000 crore when India and Abu Dhabi agreed to increase flights under the bilateral agreement. But that respite didn't last. Over the next few years, IndiGo's business model, led by single aircraft and frugal operations, became something to imbibe to run a sustainable and profitable airline. Jet Airways again needed funds. 
  • In April 2019, a consortium led by State Bank of India refused to inject more funds in Jet Airways as it crumbled under huge debt and years of loss. Etihad didn't come to rescue either this time. At the time, Jet Airways operated over 120 aircraft and flew on hundreds of routes. And the airline was grounded and ceased operations. Soon after, the lenders initiated bankruptcy proceedings against the airline and the National Company Law Tribunal admitted the case in June 2019. Allegations came to the fore that Goyal was siphoning funds from the airline. Jet Airways' board, which included Goyal and his wife, had to step down. The Enforcement Directorate began examining Etihad Airways' investment in Jet Airways, reportedly on claims of violation in foreign direct investment rules. Goyal was barred from leaving India.

Losing Hope 

  • In May 2023, Canara Bank filed a complaint with the Central Bureau of Investigation, accusing Goyal of cheating, criminal conspiracy, criminal breach of trust, and criminal misconduct. Based on the CBI's FIR, he was arrested in September by the Enforcement Directorate for alleged fraud of Rs 538 crore. The case has since been heard in a special court.
  • When Goyal first emerged in the aviation scene, many pointed to his charming ways and how he had the potential to become Indian aviation's face after JRD Tata. Years later, during the hearing last week, he stood with folded hands and bowing before the court to express how he's missing his bedridden wife in the jail. "He came before the court with continuous tremors in his whole body and hands," the judge said. The 74-year-old said his wife is bedridden and their only daughter is unwell, too. Referring him to JJ Hospital would be useless and he conveyed reluctance to travel to hospital from the Arthur Road jail.


While the Airlines may Survive - Naresh Goyal may not. That is true for any one who does unethical business.

WHAT GOES... COMES BACK... THE JET AIRWAYS WAY

Monday, January 1, 2024

Reflections of 2023

 We had made an YouTube Video on "Roller Coster Ride" on 15th may 2022 - explaining the underlying opportunities in the then lackluster markets. Indeed it was a timely video showcasing the merits of investing.

Infact, it could be interesting to watch this video again and see what we said then:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iNHnDNswCzg


While many of us are rejoicing the market rally, and many think the turning point for markets has been the state election results on November 2023, markets showed signs of growth way back in May 2023 itself - exactly one year after we posted the above mentioned video.

Since FII's were net sellers since october 2021, it was the Mid and Small caps which were ruling the roost till Nov 2023. The state election results gave clarity on upcoming elections and FII's joined the bandwagon to pump in record money in the last two months of 2023. 


In Nifty 50 stocks, 48 ended the year positively. And large cap index gained 20% in 2023. 

But the real winners in 2023 has been Mid and Small Caps - which gained 44% and 49% respectively. 

The Midcap 100 index surged 46%, driven by REC Ltd. and Power Finance Corp., which gained 3.5 and 3.4 times, respectively. Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd. witnessed a near threefold increase in its share price, led by the push for indigenous defence production. Of the Midcap 100 pack, 93 stocks ended in the positive. Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd., ACC Ltd., and Page Industries Ltd. were the top laggards and experienced declines of 22.5% and 10%, respectively.
The Smallcap 250 rose by 49% in 2023. BSE Ltd., with fourfold gains, emerged as the top performer in the pack. Suzlon Energy Ltd. saw a 3.6-fold increase, capitalising on the thrust for renewable energy. Campus Activewear Ltd. and Easy Trip Planners Ltd. faced challenges. 

Sectorwise, 
  • Nifty Realty led with an 81% surge, driven by Prestige Estates Projects Ltd., DLF Ltd., and Brigade Enterprises Ltd. 
  • Nifty Auto and Nifty Pharma also performed well, growing by over 47% and 32%, respectively. 
  • The auto sector gained due to steady demand, a softening of commodity prices and favourable policy changes this year. 
  • However, sectors like Nifty Bank, Nifty Oil and Gas, and Nifty Financial Services experienced more modest gains of 11%, 12%, and 12%, respectively.

IPO Market:
A vibrant IPO market is curcial for a healthy secondary market. 2023 will certainly be remembered as the year of the primary markets. And more infamously, IPOs in the SME space. Out of over 150 companies that hit the primary markets in the SME space, 51 companies hit subscription levels of over 100 times and 12 of those hit subscription levels of over 300 times! A logistics company received subscription for Rs 10,100 crore against the IPO size of Rs 32 crore. Another SME IPO received Rs 18,800 crore worth of bids against an IPO size of Rs 78 crore. And the most subscribed IPOs were not oversubscribed 'merely' 100-200 times. Kahan Packaging was subscribed 730 times. Speaks of the mania in the markets in 2023. 

Going Forward...
FII's have just resumed their investments. And you have a BIG event in 2024 - Central Government elections in May 2024. Markets are running up on expectations. But investors need to keep in mind the following:
  • Investments made when past year(s) returns have been muted - gives Best returns.
  • Last year has been spectacular. Expecting similar kind of returns in 2024 may be tough.
  • Run up to the elections is usually noisy. That can create lots of volatality.
  • Cut in interest rates is widely expected in 2024. If that happens - that can fan liquidity and fuel inflation too. It can pump up stock price.
  • Above all - a run up in stock price (hence MF's NAV) has to be substantiated by rise in earnings. It is ultimately the fundamentals which justify / determine the stock price.
  • Having said that - while one year forward may be tough to predict, over next 3 to 5 years Indian economy is bound to do well. 
  • So Investors who need funds in next 1 years needs to be cautious. All others can invest at every opportunity you may get in the markets.
  • But it FII's continue to invest - 2024 could be an year for Large cap's. 
So multitude of factors - election results + Interest rate cut + FII Investment + Earnings Growth justification - are likely to dictate 2024. Asusual - it is Interesting times ahead...